The Price of Money

A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Democrats ahead of Republicans by 8 points on who is better at addressing affordability (36% to 28%), the largest gap since last October, while Trump’s approval sits at a term-low 33%. The results suggest mounting political headwinds for Republicans ahead of the midterms.

Bitcoin jumped over 5% to about $72,384, its highest since June, with a two-day gain near 12% as Treasury yields fell and a short squeeze boosted crypto trading; Coinbase and Circle rose roughly 7% as crypto executives pressed Congress to pass a fair Clarity Act before year-end, a move seen as a key catalyst for regulation and the market’s exit from the crypto winter, though partisan divides over ethics rules threaten timing and a Senate vote; Bitcoin remains about 40% below its October 2025 high of around $126,000.

Scott Bessent, a former hedge-fund star who helped Soros and Druckenmiller short currencies, now steered the U.S. Treasury in its first joint currency intervention with Japan since 2011, buying yen to bolster the currency and dampen U.S. Treasury yields as the national debt nears $40 trillion. His currency-market savvy and long-running ties to Japan informed the move, which aimed to support a key ally without triggering a broader sell-off of Treasuries. Critics called the step ill-advised, while supporters say it buys time amid macro pressures, reflecting a shift in policy under a new economic framework and the dollar’s structural role in the global system.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America” for U.S. maps, a symbolic move tied to the widening U.S.–Canada tariff dispute in which Washington has imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and Canada retaliated with its own tariffs. Trump cannot compel Canada to adopt the name, highlighting the limits of unilateral branding in a bilateral trade feud. The live updates also cover a broad roster of other political and policy stories as events unfold.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.66% this week, signaling higher borrowing costs for home buyers.

Investors and Fed watchers are hoping Kevin Warsh will bring much-needed clarity to the Fed’s strategy at Jackson Hole, addressing the July press conference confusion, laying out how inflation dynamics may unfold, and clarifying the role of the Fed’s preferred inflation yardstick and rate adjustments, while highlighting his new task forces to improve communication and framework—even as the key tool, the fed funds rate, remains under consideration.

Canadian exporters confront a 50% U.S. tariff on clothing, alcohol and other goods, raising concerns that higher prices will dampen American demand and create surprise tariff bills. Some companies, like Anián, are preemptively blocking taxed items for U.S. shoppers and shifting inventory to mitigate risks, as Canada prepares retaliatory tariffs in September and business groups warn the levies could curb cross-border sales and growth.

Nvidia is increasingly financing the AI boom with its balance sheet, building a near $100 billion equity portfolio and pledging up to $108.5 billion in guarantees to back AI data-center builds (including OpenAI), while seeking external capital—still earning from hardware sales and rental revenue as it expands its role beyond chipmaking.

Gap named Michael Francis as Old Navy CEO effective Nov. 2 to reverse the brand’s sluggish performance. Old Navy posted net sales of $2.1B and a 4% drop in comparable sales for the quarter, contributing about 60% of Gap’s revenue. Overall Gap Inc. saw a 1% decline in company-wide comparable sales, with EPS beating estimates but revenue missing at $3.65B. Banana Republic rose 3% in comps, while Athleta fell 12%. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $2.35–$2.45, aided by tariff refunds that boosted margins. Francis will focus on sharpening customer focus and momentum across the brand portfolio.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America” for U.S. maps, a symbolic move tied to the widening U.S.–Canada tariff dispute in which Washington has imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and Canada retaliated with its own tariffs. Trump cannot compel Canada to adopt the name, highlighting the limits of unilateral branding in a bilateral trade feud. The live updates also cover a broad roster of other political and policy stories as events unfold.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver the Jackson Hole keynote amid uncertainty over how concrete his rate-path guidance will be, as markets seek clarity on inflation channels and the Fed’s reaction function. Warsh has set up five task forces to reframe Fed functions and has favored market signals over explicit guidance, a stance that could spark volatility if not paired with clear policy signals. The backdrop includes Treasury’s plan to double buybacks of off-the-run debt, complicating the policy mix ahead of the symposium on Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.

The Trump administration is weighing broad semiconductor tariffs that could extend to chips and downstream products, triggering industry opposition that warns such tariffs would raise prices, slow data-center expansion, and delay AI deployment, potentially pushing AI work overseas; tech groups are pushing for phased, targeted exemptions or avoiding tariffs on semiconductors to prevent undermining US AI leadership.

Trump again seeks to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook after a Supreme Court ruling, triggering renewed litigation over Fed independence and the scope of the unitary-executive theory. Cook must respond to mortgage‑fraud allegations, and the courts will likely have to adjudicate who truly controls the Fed amid a broader clash between the presidency and the judiciary.

NVIDIA is expanding beyond chipmaking by using its giant investment portfolio (about $99B in public/private equity) to finance AI infrastructure. It now offers long payment terms to large AI customers, backs data-center builds with guarantees (up to roughly $108.5B for the OpenAI SB Energy project), and seeks outside capital to fund the AI boom (targets >$500B in investor commitments). With accounts receivable at about $63B and a longer average collection period (~60 days), the company is moving toward a model Morgan Stanley has dubbed balance-sheet-as-a-service, while continuing to profit from investment gains and new debt issued for buybacks/dividends. This marks a shift where NVIDIA’s balance sheet becomes a key driver of AI infrastructure growth, not just a supplier of hardware.

AI IPOs hype enormous total addressable market figures to signal growth, but TAM is a long‑term, speculative estimate rather than a precise target. Anthropic reportedly cites a $30 trillion TAM that would surpass SpaceX’s $28.5 trillion, illustrating TAM inflation in tech markets; examples like Reddit and Nvidia show how hype can outpace actual results.

Intuit beat Q4 estimates with adjusted EPS of $4.03 on revenue of $4.35B, but issued FY2027 guidance of $22.88–$23.12 per share on $23.3–$23.5B revenue, well below consensus due to including stock-based compensation. CEO Sasan Goodarzi says the company will use price competition to gain market share amid AI expansion, a stance that contributed to the stock’s drop after the report.